Pulse Bulletin

Sixteen years of data show the largest payroll surprises moved currency prices no further than the smallest ones — and that several releases flagged “high impact” produce quieter-than-average hours

A new study of 3,963 high-impact US economic releases has found that the size of a data surprise — the gap between the figure economists forecast and the figure actually published — has no measurable relationship to how far markets move when it lands.

The research, conducted by the FxBacktest team, joined a 95,799-row economic calendar covering 2007 to 2026, carrying the actual, forecast and previous value of each release, to hourly currency, metals and equity index price data over the same period. Each release hour was measured against the average range of that same clock hour on weekdays containing no high-impact US release at all, giving every event a like-for-like baseline rather than a comparison against the trading day as a whole.

Across 180 non-farm payroll releases, sorting the results into three groups by surprise size produced average euro-dollar price ranges of 60.7, 64.6 and 65.5 pips in the release hour — a pip being the fourth decimal place in most currency quotes. Median figures were flatter still: 56.8 pips for the smallest third of surprises and 56.9 pips for the largest. The group with a median miss of 114,000 jobs moved the market one tenth of a pip further than the group with a median miss of 17,000.

“The forecast miss is the most visible number in the room on release day, so it gets credited with the move,” said Vasil K., CEO of FxBacktest. “What the data shows is that the market is repricing a scheduled moment of uncertainty, not the number itself. Positioning is cleared around a known event at roughly the same scale whether the print lands close to consensus or a long way from it.”

The study identifies a structural reason for the result. The payrolls report is not a single figure: the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings are published in the same instant, so a headline figure above forecast can arrive alongside a weak internal reading. The market’s response is a reading of the entire release rather than of the one line the consensus forecast was written against.

Direction proved symmetric as well. The 100 releases that came in above forecast averaged 62.0 pips of range; the 78 that came in below averaged 66.5.

Which releases actually move markets

The study does not conclude that scheduled data fails to move markets. It finds instead that the moving is concentrated in a small number of events, and that the calendar’s own impact ratings are a poor guide to which.

The Federal Reserve rate decision hour averaged 73.2 pips of euro-dollar range across 91 decisions — 5.21 times an ordinary hour at the same time of day, the largest multiple of any scheduled event in the sample. Non-farm payrolls averaged 63.6 pips, or 2.69 times normal, across 180 releases. Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee came in at 2.67 times across 99 publications, and the consumer price index at 2.08 times across 82.

Below that, the multiples fall away quickly. Retail sales measured 1.59 times an ordinary hour, manufacturing survey data 1.46 times, gross domestic product 1.35 times, durable goods orders 1.33 times, producer prices 1.31 times and consumer confidence 1.27 times. Weekly unemployment claims — the most frequently published release the calendar flags as high impact — managed 1.21 times, barely a blip. Pooled across all 2,279 high-impact releases in the hourly sample, the average was 1.82 times.

“One event on the list runs above three times a normal hour, three run above two, and the median release runs 1.82,” said Vasil K. “A calendar that prints all of them in the same red typeface is describing the release, not the reaction to it.”

The same release, six different markets

The second finding has broader reach for anyone tracking more than one asset class, because the same scheduled event was found to produce very different responses depending on the instrument.

Weekly unemployment claims moved the euro-dollar rate 1.21 times a normal hour, gold 0.97 times, and the Nasdaq 100 index 0.49 times. That last figure is below one — meaning the hour containing a release flagged as high impact was, for that index, calmer than an ordinary hour at the same time of day. Manufacturing survey data showed the same pattern, running at 0.98 times on the same index.

The reverse also appears. The consumer price index moved the Nasdaq 100 considerably more than it moved the currency market — 2.68 times against 2.08 — a result consistent with an inflation reading being priced primarily as an interest-rate event and an equity index behaving as a long-duration asset. The dollar-yen exchange rate proved the most payroll-sensitive instrument in the set at 3.33 times normal, ahead of the euro at 2.69 and sterling at 2.28.

Across the pooled set of high-impact releases, the ranking by sensitivity ran dollar-yen at 1.84 times, euro-dollar at 1.82, sterling-dollar at 1.65, gold at 1.31, the S&P 500 at 1.23 and the Nasdaq 100 at 1.12.

Timing explains part of the headline figure

The research team cautions that the Federal Reserve’s 5.21 multiple is partly a statement about when the decision is published rather than about its importance relative to other events.

A 2:00 p.m. Eastern decision lands during an hour when the euro-dollar baseline range is roughly 13 to 14 pips, among the quietest of the trading day. Payrolls, published at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, arrive in an hour whose baseline runs 23 to 27 pips — already one of the busiest, and therefore with far less room to multiply. In absolute terms the two events are much closer than the ratios suggest, at 73.2 pips against 63.6.

The study publishes both readings side by side rather than choosing between them, on the grounds that they answer different questions: the absolute range describes how far price travelled, while the multiple describes how unusual the hour was relative to its own norm.

What happens after the release

A smaller section of the study, using 15-minute price data, examined whether the initial reaction persisted. On the pooled set of 327 releases, the direction established in the first 15 minutes was still intact four hours later 63.5% of the time.

The team stresses the limits of that figure. It says nothing about how far price travelled in the opposite direction in the interim, and the average displacement 60 minutes after a release — 23.2 pips — was smaller than the release bar’s own range of 29.5 pips, which the study describes as the signature of a spike that partially retraces. The finer-grained price files reach back only to approximately 2022, leaving individual event samples small: the consumer price index reading of 50.0% persistence rests on 18 observations, and is presented in the study as a sample-size caveat rather than a finding.

A data-quality defect in the source calendar

The research also documents a problem in the underlying calendar data that affects any study of this type, and which the team says is rarely disclosed by publishers of event statistics.

Nearly a quarter of the calendar rows — 24,699, or 25.8% — carried a midnight placeholder rather than an actual publication time. For releases issued at fixed US Eastern times, the study reconstructed the moment from the date under US Eastern daylight-saving rules, then validated that reconstruction against the rows that did carry a timestamp, accepting it only where it landed in the correct hour at least 95% of the time.

Non-farm payrolls validated at 100% of its 59 timed rows and producer prices at 100% of 48. Others failed and were used from timed rows only: the Philadelphia Fed index validated at just 19.1%, because its publication time moved from 10:00 to 8:30 a.m. Eastern during the sample period, and the federal funds rate at 88.1%, because the Committee published at 2:15 p.m. Eastern prior to 2013.

A second defect involved incorrect daylight-saving offsets on a minority of rows, which places a release in the neighbouring hour. Releases whose recorded hour fell outside the hours holding at least 15% of that event’s own history were discarded. Of the final 3,963 resolved releases, 3,367 came from the source clock and 596 from validated reconstruction. Releases published simultaneously, such as the several lines of an inflation report, were collapsed into a single event so they counted once rather than three times.

Stated limits

The team emphasises that price range is not a measure of profitability. The figures are drawn from one side of the market and exclude the cost of transacting, which widens sharply at precisely these moments, and they make no allowance for the difference between a quoted and an executed price during a fast move. Every figure in the study, the team notes, should be read as a ceiling on price movement rather than an estimate of what was capturable.

Historical statistics also describe the period measured and do not forecast future behaviour. The full dataset — release-hour ranges across six instruments, the payroll surprise analysis and the post-release persistence tables — is published free for reuse with attribution.

Managing weight can be especially challenging when persistent hunger and cravings undermine every effort. For some women, appetite is the single biggest obstacle to progress. This is where medically supervised options come in, and understanding duromine Singapore helps women make informed decisions about whether appetite support could form part of a sensible weight management plan.

Duromine is a prescription appetite suppressant that works on the central nervous system to reduce feelings of hunger. By easing the constant urge to eat, it can help people adhere to a reduced-calorie diet more comfortably. It is intended for short-term use under medical supervision and is generally considered for individuals who meet specific criteria related to weight and health.

Because it is a prescription medicine with real effects, proper medical oversight is essential. A clinician assesses whether the treatment is suitable, taking into account health history, existing conditions, and other medications. This careful screening protects patients and ensures the medicine is used responsibly. It is not a casual purchase but part of a structured, monitored plan.

The way it supports weight loss is worth understanding clearly. Duromine does not burn fat or work independently of effort. Instead, it reduces appetite, which makes it easier to eat less and stick to a healthier diet. The actual weight loss comes from the dietary and lifestyle changes it enables. Viewing it as a support tool rather than a solution in itself leads to more realistic expectations.

Short-term use is an important feature of this treatment. It is typically prescribed for a limited period, during which the aim is to establish healthier eating patterns that can be maintained afterwards. This makes the habits built during treatment particularly important, since they are what sustain results once the medication stops. Using the period wisely is key to lasting benefit.

Side effects are part of an honest discussion. Some people experience dry mouth, difficulty sleeping, restlessness, or a faster heartbeat. Because of these effects, medical supervision is important, and the treatment is not suitable for everyone. A clinician can weigh the potential benefits against the risks for each individual and monitor for any problems during treatment.

The treatment works best as one element of a broader plan. Balanced nutrition, regular physical activity, and attention to overall health all contribute to success. Appetite support makes the dietary side easier, but the wider lifestyle changes remain central. Women who approach it this way tend to see better and more sustainable results than those hoping the medicine will do everything.

It is also worth considering weight management within the wider context of women’s health. Hormonal factors, life stages, and individual circumstances all influence weight in women, which is why female-focused care can be valuable. Clinics serving women often address a range of connected needs, offering a more complete understanding of health rather than treating weight in isolation.

This connected approach means women exploring appetite support often encounter guidance on other important aspects of their health too. Reputable women’s health services frequently provide clear information on timely concerns, including emergency contraception Singapore, recognising that women benefit from trustworthy advice across the full spectrum of their wellbeing rather than on a single issue at a time.

Access to medically supervised weight management continues to expand across Singapore, with more clinics offering structured programmes that combine appropriate treatment with proper assessment and support. This ensures that options like appetite suppressants are used safely and as part of a considered plan rather than in isolation.

For any woman considering appetite support as part of her weight management, the right first step is a consultation with a qualified clinician who can assess suitability and design a safe, sensible plan. Used responsibly and under supervision, appetite support can help some women overcome a significant obstacle, but it works best as part of a genuine commitment to healthier living.

It is also encouraging that treatment does not have to be complicated to be effective. For many women, a straightforward, consistent plan guided by a clinician produces meaningful results over time. The key is starting with an accurate understanding of the cause and then following through patiently. Women who take this measured, informed approach are frequently rewarded with visible improvement and, just as importantly, renewed confidence in themselves.

The science behind medical weight loss has advanced considerably, and one treatment in particular has drawn attention for the way it works on more than one front. For people researching their options, Mounjaro Singapore represents a newer generation of therapy that targets two hormonal pathways rather than one, a feature that helps explain the strong results seen in clinical study.

To appreciate what makes this treatment distinctive, it helps to understand how appetite and metabolism are regulated. The body relies on a network of hormones to signal hunger, fullness, and how energy is stored and used. Many weight loss treatments act on a single one of these hormones. Mounjaro’s active ingredient, tirzepatide, engages two of them together, which appears to amplify its effect.

This dual mechanism translates into practical benefits. By acting on both pathways, the treatment helps reduce appetite more effectively while also supporting better blood sugar control. For people whose weight and metabolic health are closely linked, this combined effect addresses several concerns at once, offering a more comprehensive approach than treatments focused on appetite alone.

Clinical research has been central to the interest surrounding this treatment. Studies have pointed to substantial weight loss for many participants, results that have reframed what people consider achievable through medical support. While individual outcomes vary, the strength of the evidence has given both patients and clinicians confidence in the treatment’s potential.

As with any prescription medicine, the process begins with a medical consultation. A clinician assesses whether the treatment is appropriate based on health history, body mass index, and personal goals. This careful entry point ensures the medicine is used responsibly and safely, and it sets up a supported plan with proper monitoring rather than an unsupervised attempt.

The gradual dosing approach is worth understanding. Treatment usually starts low and increases over time, allowing the body to adjust and reducing the intensity of early side effects. This measured build-up is a deliberate part of the design, helping patients tolerate the treatment more comfortably as they progress.

Side effects tend to follow a familiar pattern. Nausea, mild stomach discomfort, and fatigue are most common in the early weeks and generally ease as the body adapts. Understanding that this adjustment phase is temporary helps patients continue with confidence rather than abandoning treatment before it has a chance to work.

It remains important to set realistic expectations. The dual action makes the treatment powerful, but it is not a shortcut that removes the need for healthy habits. The best outcomes come when the medication is paired with balanced eating and regular movement. The treatment makes those habits easier to sustain, but the habits themselves still matter a great deal.

The wider health benefits can be significant. As weight comes down and blood sugar stabilises, the risks associated with excess weight and metabolic problems tend to ease. Many people also report improved energy, better mobility, and a renewed sense of wellbeing that extends into every part of their lives.

Availability of advanced weight management continues to grow across Singapore. More clinics now offer structured programmes that combine modern treatments with lifestyle guidance and careful monitoring, reflecting a more sophisticated and supportive approach to managing weight and metabolic health.

It also helps to view the treatment as part of a wider commitment to health rather than an isolated intervention. The dual action gives people a strong foundation, but the habits and choices built around it determine how far that foundation can take them. When medication and lifestyle work in harmony, the combined effect is greater than either could achieve alone, which is exactly what makes this approach so promising for many people in Singapore.

For those intrigued by what this treatment could offer, the right step is a consultation with a qualified clinician who can assess individual needs and explain the approach in detail. The dual action that makes this therapy notable is best understood in the context of a person’s whole health picture, and professional guidance ensures it is used to its full and safe potential.

It is also helpful to remember that everyone’s journey with the treatment looks a little different. Some people respond quickly, while others take longer to see change, and both experiences are entirely normal. Rather than measuring progress against others, it is far more useful to focus on personal milestones and steady improvement. A supportive clinician can help interpret progress realistically and adjust the plan as needed, keeping motivation strong through the natural ups and downs of any weight loss journey.

As clear aligners have become more popular, so too have misunderstandings about how they work and what they can achieve. Anyone researching Invisalign Singapore is likely to encounter a mix of accurate information and persistent myths. Separating fact from fiction helps you approach treatment with realistic expectations and genuine confidence.

Misconceptions can either put people off a treatment that might suit them well or create expectations that do not match reality. Looking at some of the most common myths clears up the confusion.

Myth: Clear Aligners Only Fix Minor Problems

A widespread belief is that clear aligners can only address very mild concerns. In fact, they can treat a broad range of alignment issues, from spacing and crowding to more involved cases, depending on the individual. What matters is a proper assessment by a dentist, who can determine whether aligners are suitable for your particular situation. While not every case is appropriate for aligners, dismissing them as only for minor issues underestimates what they can do.

Myth: Treatment Is Always Faster Than Braces

Some people assume clear aligners always work more quickly than traditional braces. The truth is that treatment time depends on the complexity of the case and how consistently the aligners are worn, not simply on the type of appliance. Some cases are completed relatively quickly, while others take longer. Setting realistic expectations about timelines from the outset helps avoid disappointment and keeps you focused on steady progress.

Myth: You Can Wear Them Only a Few Hours a Day

Perhaps the most damaging myth is that aligners can be worn casually for a few hours and still work. In reality, they need to be worn for most of the day, removed only for eating, drinking anything other than water, and cleaning. Consistent wear is the single most important factor in successful treatment. Believing otherwise leads to slow progress and frustration, so understanding this commitment before starting is essential.

Myth: Aligners Are Painful to Wear

Many people worry that treatment will be painful. While it is normal to feel some pressure or mild discomfort when starting a new set of aligners, this is usually short-lived and far gentler than many expect. The sensation reflects the teeth gradually moving, which is exactly what should happen. Most people adjust quickly and find the experience very manageable, describing it as a mild awareness rather than genuine pain.

Approaching Treatment With Clear Understanding

Dispelling these myths allows you to make a decision based on facts rather than hearsay. Clear aligners are a capable and comfortable treatment for many people, provided they are worn consistently and the case is suitable. The best way to cut through conflicting information is to speak directly with a dentist, who can assess your needs and explain honestly what to expect. Armed with accurate understanding, you can approach treatment with confidence.

Catchr has launched an MCP connector that brings live data from Google Ads, Meta Ads, GA4, Shopify, and 100+ other marketing platforms directly into Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, and Copilot. Marketers can question campaign performance in plain language without exporting a single CSV.

GRENAY, FR — September 8, 2026 — Catchr.io, the marketing data platform used by agencies, e-commerce brands, freelancers, and in-house marketing teams, has announced a new way to access live marketing data directly from AI assistants, including Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, and Copilot.

Marketers can now ask, “Why did CPA rise last week?” or “Which campaigns lost momentum?” and receive an answer grounded in current data from Meta Ads, Google Ads, GA4, HubSpot, Shopify, and more than 100 other sources, without first exporting a single CSV.

Catchr is now available as an official MCP connector in the Claude directory and as an app in the ChatGPT app store. Gemini, Copilot, and other MCP-compatible clients can connect through the public endpoint.

Installation takes just three steps: search for Catchr in the directory, install it, and authenticate their account.

A typical agency client runs paid media on two or three ad networks, tracks the site in GA4, manages leads in a CRM, and sells through an e-commerce platform. Each of those tools has its own export format, its own metric names, and its own refresh cadence.

Before an account manager can answer a simple question about performance, someone has to pull the numbers, reconcile them, and paste them into a sheet. Multiply that by every client and every reporting tool, and the export routine quietly eats a full working day each week.

AI assistants were supposed to fix this, but an assistant with no access to the data can only reason about numbers someone has already copied into the chat.

Catchr MCP closes that gap by putting the connected, refreshed data layer directly behind the assistant.

Catchr replaces the export routine with a single authenticated connection per platform. Once a source is connected, the same data flows to 20+ destinations including Looker Studio, Power BI, Tableau, Google Sheets, Excel, BigQuery, the Catchr API, and now AI assistants.

When a client asks for a new dashboard, a warehouse export, or an AI analysis, the team adds a destination instead of rebuilding the pipeline.

No code is required. Setup follows three steps:

1. Authentication happens once per platform, with the exact ad accounts, properties, or portals selected during setup.

2. Destinations come next: reporting tools, spreadsheets, warehouses, and AI assistants. Catchr reuses the connected sources for each one.

3. Everything runs from there. Reports open with current numbers, Claude and ChatGPT answer performance questions, and Catchr keeps every destination refreshed automatically.

Unified data fields normalize metric names across platforms, so “spend” or “conversions” mean the same thing whether the row came from TikTok Ads, LinkedIn Ads, or Pinterest Ads. That consistency is what makes a cross channel question answerable in one prompt.

Catchr is designed around marketing teams run every week:

Account managers open a current cross channel report, ask an AI assistant why performance changed, and turn the answer into priorities before the client call. A pre call check might surface that CPA increased because prospecting spend grew faster than conversion volume, along with the three campaigns that need review.

Freelancers connect a client’s stack once and work in the dashboards and spreadsheets they already know. Pacing checks, campaign reviews, monthly summaries, and margin calculations run on live data instead of Monday morning exports.

Data and operations teams manage sources, accounts, refresh schedules, and destinations from one place while account teams keep using whatever tool they prefer. The data layer is standardized without restricting the tools on top of it.

“Every report used to start with five exports and a morning of copy paste. Now it starts with the actual client work,” said Florian Cabirol, CEO at Catchr.

“Adding AI assistants as a destination was the obvious next step. The data is already connected and reliable. Letting people question it in plain language removes the last manual step between the numbers and the recommendation.”

Catchr connectors span paid media, web and app analytics, CRM, ecommerce, SEO, email, and organic social. Supported sources include Google Ads, Meta Ads, Microsoft Ads, LinkedIn Ads, TikTok Ads, Amazon Ads, Pinterest Ads, Snapchat Ads, X Ads, Spotify Ads, Google Analytics 4, Matomo, Google Search Console, Google Business Profile, YouTube Analytics, Instagram, TikTok Organic, LinkedIn Pages, Shopify, WooCommerce, HubSpot, Klaviyo, and Mailchimp.

Beyond data routing, Catchr’s Brand Hub gives teams a view of brand presence, including a GEO module for tracking how brands appear in AI generated answers. A free University section offers courses on Looker Studio, Google Sheets, and Power BI, and a template library covers paid media, SEO, web analytics, lead generation, email, social, and e-commerce reporting.

Catchr is used by agencies and brands including Tigrz Paris, Mojo, The Browz, Pickers, Axonaut, Ikom, AdsBack, and Digital Passengers.

Published case studies detail how Pickers, The Browz, and Axonaut moved client and internal reporting onto a single connected data layer.

Catchr MCP is available now to all Catchr customers. New users can start a 14 day free trial with no credit card required.

Teams can also book a live product demo at https://www.catchr.io/productdemo

Catchr connects 100+ marketing platforms to the reporting, spreadsheet, warehouse, and AI tools teams already use. It centralizes marketing data, keeps it automatically up to date, and lets agencies and brands report with confidence and uncover AI insights. Catchr is built for account managers, freelancers, and data teams who need the numbers ready before the meeting starts.

Media contact

Florian Cabirol
CEO, Catchr
Email: florian@catchr.io
Address: 127 Rue Jean Montagnon, Grenay, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes 38540, France

Media Contact:
Name: Florian Cabirol
Company: Catchr
Email: florian@catchr.io
Address: 127 Rue Jean Montagnon, Grenay, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes 38540, France
Website: https://www.catchr.io/